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Mesoscale Discussion 948 |
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Mesoscale Discussion 0948
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0300 PM CDT Sat May 28 2022
Areas affected...portions of west TX into southwest OK
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible
Valid 282000Z - 282130Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent
SUMMARY...Isolated high-based supercells are possible from late
afternoon into early evening across parts of western TX into
southwest OK. Strong, locally damaging gusts will be possible with
this activity.
DISCUSSION...Increasing cumulus and isolated high-based showers are
developing over eastern NM into adjacent portions of western TX
behind a surface dryline this afternoon. Temperatures have warmed
into the upper 90s to low 100s behind and along the dryline. A
midlevel cap is quickly eroding from the Midland TX area toward
Childress TX amid this strong heating and low-level moist advection.
Initial convection may have trouble becoming sustained in a very
deeply mixed boundary-layer where RAP thermodynamic profiles show an
inverted-v sub-cloud layer amid PW values less than 1 inch. This
very dry sub-cloud layer will nevertheless support strong outflow
winds.
With time, convection will spread eastward into western north TX and
far southwest OK where surface dewpoints are in the upper 50s to low
60s. This area of better low-level moisture, in conjunction with
very steep low and mid-level lapse rates, is supporting MUCAPE
values greater than 3500 J/kg. Furthermore, strong heating has
resulted in low-level lapse rates greater than 8 C/km and DCAPE
values greater than 1600 J/kg. While deep-layer flow is not strong,
vertically veering wind profiles are contributing to 25-35 kt
effective shear magnitudes. As a result, at least briefly organized,
but isolated high-based supercells will be possible from late
afternoon into early evening. Very strong, damaging outflow winds
(possibly greater than 75 mph) will be possible with this activity
in addition to isolated hail (with any more sustained/persistent
supercells). Convective trends will be monitored and a watch may be
needed by 21-22z.
..Leitman/Thompson.. 05/28/2022
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...OUN...SJT...LUB...AMA...MAF...
LAT...LON 34029941 33539967 33079996 32370086 32150127 31740206
31800239 32090252 32710190 33430134 34410094 35210076
35430060 35640037 35740006 35769982 35669951 35399922
34859919 34409929 34029941
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