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Mesoscale Discussion 948
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   Mesoscale Discussion 0948
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0300 PM CDT Sat May 28 2022

   Areas affected...portions of west TX into southwest OK

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 282000Z - 282130Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

   SUMMARY...Isolated high-based supercells are possible from late
   afternoon into early evening across parts of western TX into
   southwest OK. Strong, locally damaging gusts will be possible with
   this activity.

   DISCUSSION...Increasing cumulus and isolated high-based showers are
   developing over eastern NM into adjacent portions of western TX
   behind a surface dryline this afternoon. Temperatures have warmed
   into the upper 90s to low 100s behind and along the dryline. A
   midlevel cap is quickly eroding from the Midland TX area toward
   Childress TX amid this strong heating and low-level moist advection.
   Initial convection may have trouble becoming sustained in a very
   deeply mixed boundary-layer where RAP thermodynamic profiles show an
   inverted-v sub-cloud layer amid PW values less than 1 inch. This
   very dry sub-cloud layer will nevertheless support strong outflow

   With time, convection will spread eastward into western north TX and
   far southwest OK where surface dewpoints are in the upper 50s to low
   60s. This area of better low-level moisture, in conjunction with
   very steep low and mid-level lapse rates, is supporting MUCAPE
   values greater than 3500 J/kg. Furthermore, strong heating has
   resulted in low-level lapse rates greater than 8 C/km and DCAPE
   values greater than 1600 J/kg. While deep-layer flow is not strong,
   vertically veering wind profiles are contributing to 25-35 kt
   effective shear magnitudes. As a result, at least briefly organized,
   but isolated high-based supercells will be possible from late
   afternoon into early evening. Very strong, damaging outflow winds
   (possibly greater than 75 mph) will be possible with this activity
   in addition to isolated hail (with any more sustained/persistent
   supercells). Convective trends will be monitored and a watch may be
   needed by 21-22z.

   ..Leitman/Thompson.. 05/28/2022

   ...Please see for graphic product...


   LAT...LON   34029941 33539967 33079996 32370086 32150127 31740206
               31800239 32090252 32710190 33430134 34410094 35210076
               35430060 35640037 35740006 35769982 35669951 35399922
               34859919 34409929 34029941 

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