|Mesoscale Discussion 949|
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Mesoscale Discussion 0949
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0523 PM CDT Sat May 28 2022
Areas affected...portions of western and central Nebraska
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible
Valid 282223Z - 290000Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent
SUMMARY...Gradual storm development currently underway should result
in high-based storms including a few supercells this evening.
Damaging winds and hail are possible suggesting a weather watch may
DISCUSSION...As of 2215Z, afternoon visible imagery and radar data
showed high-based cumulus towers/showers developing across parts of
western and southwestern NE. Likely aided by ascent from a passing
shortwave trough and strong surface heating, remaining MLCINH should
erode resulting in the development of isolated to widely scattered
thunderstorms early this evening. SPC mesoanalysis shows 1500-2500
J/kg of MLCAPE has developed owing to very warm surface temperatures
(80-90F) and dewpoints in the low 50s F. While likely high based,
vertically veering wind profiles (EBWD of 40-50 kt) will support
initial supercell structures capable of damaging hail and outflow
winds. The enhanced downdraft potential from 0-3km lapse rates in
excess of 9 C/km may also support some upscale growth into clusters
or short bowing segments capable of significant wind gusts later
this evening. Latest WOFS and hi-res HRRR guidance also suggest this
possibility as storms track north and east across north-central NE.
Given the potential for storm organization and the increasing severe
risk, a weather watch is being considered.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
LAT...LON 40160132 40920238 42000270 42770255 42980236 43050131
43010044 42759989 42139958 40899987 40260071 40160132
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