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Mesoscale Discussion 949
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   Mesoscale Discussion 0949
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0523 PM CDT Sat May 28 2022

   Areas affected...portions of western and central Nebraska

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 282223Z - 290000Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

   SUMMARY...Gradual storm development currently underway should result
   in high-based storms including a few supercells this evening.
   Damaging winds and hail are possible suggesting a weather watch may
   be needed.

   DISCUSSION...As of 2215Z, afternoon visible imagery and radar data
   showed high-based cumulus towers/showers developing across parts of
   western and southwestern NE. Likely aided by ascent from a  passing
   shortwave trough and strong surface heating, remaining MLCINH should
   erode resulting in the development of isolated to widely scattered
   thunderstorms early this evening. SPC mesoanalysis shows 1500-2500
   J/kg of MLCAPE has developed owing to very warm surface temperatures
   (80-90F) and dewpoints in the low 50s F. While likely high based,
   vertically veering wind profiles (EBWD of 40-50 kt) will support
   initial supercell structures capable of damaging hail and outflow
   winds. The enhanced downdraft potential from 0-3km lapse rates in
   excess of 9 C/km may also support some upscale growth into clusters
   or short bowing segments capable of significant wind gusts later
   this evening. Latest WOFS and hi-res HRRR guidance also suggest this
   possibility as storms track north and east across north-central NE.
   Given the potential for storm organization and the increasing severe
   risk, a weather watch is being considered.

   ..Lyons/Guyer.. 05/28/2022

   ...Please see for graphic product...


   LAT...LON   40160132 40920238 42000270 42770255 42980236 43050131
               43010044 42759989 42139958 40899987 40260071 40160132 

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