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Mesoscale Discussion 950
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   Mesoscale Discussion 0950
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0632 PM CDT Sat May 28 2022

   Areas affected...extreme northeastern Wyoming...western South Dakota
   and far southeastern montana

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 281...

   Valid 282332Z - 290100Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 281

   SUMMARY...Two clusters of high-based storms will likely continue to
   pose a risk for mainly damaging wind gusts and isolated hail over
   the next couple of hours across WW281.

   DISCUSSION...As of 2230 UTC, regional radar data showed a cluster of
   thunderstorms ongoing across far northeastern WY, into southeastern
   MT, and northwestern SD. Over the last hour, several reports of
   50-60 mph gusts have been observed with this cluster as it tracked
   quickly northeast. SPC mesoanalysis shows approx 500 J/kg of MLCAPE
   ahead of the cluster suggesting storms will likely continue to pose
   a risk for damaging wind gusts over the next hour or two. Farther
   north however, cooler and more stable conditions are noted north of
   a frontal boundary near the ND/SD border. Storms should gradually
   weaken as they approach, and cross the frontal boundary later this
   evening. Until then strong downdrafts may support damaging wind gust
   potential with theses storms. 

   Farther south and east, more isolated thunderstorms, including a few
   supercells were beginning to organize across portions of
   south-central SD. Steep mid-level lapse rates (7.5-8 C/km) and
   larger buoyancy (MLCAPE 1000-1500 J/kg) may support a risk for
   isolated hail along with the potential for damaging outflow winds.
   Latest WOFS/HRRR guidance also suggests some upscale growth may
   occur later this evening. This outcome would favor locally greater
   potential for damaging gusts, some of which could be 70+ mph. While
   it remains unclear how storms will evolve, the potential for
   damaging gusts and isolated hail should continue into this evening
   across WW281.

   ..Lyons.. 05/28/2022

   ...Please see for graphic product...


   LAT...LON   43170216 44010300 44290339 44750407 44930438 45210477
               45580486 45970463 46130407 46040272 45730216 45700203
               45360168 44970136 44310122 43830117 43040133 42940156
               42950187 43170216 

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