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Mesoscale Discussion 951
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   Mesoscale Discussion 0951
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0656 AM CDT Sun Jun 21 2020

   Areas affected...Parts of southern Oklahoma into north central Texas

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 289...

   Valid 211156Z - 211400Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 289

   SUMMARY...Occasional, isolated severe hail may continue in slow
   moving strong storms across the region through 8-10 AM CDT. 
   Although a new watch  will not be issued in the near term, there is
   at least some potential for storms to continue to consolidate and
   gradually organize.  This could eventually be accompanied by
   increasing potential for strong wind gusts by mid morning, and
   trends will have to continue to be monitored for the possibility of
   a new severe weather watch.

   DISCUSSION...Weak lower/mid-tropospheric warm advection continues to
   contribute to a gradual increase in convective development near the
   Red River between Sherman/Denison and Wichita Falls TX,
   northwestward into the Fort Sill OK area.  At the same time,
   vigorous convective development is spreading southward into the
   Oklahoma City metro area, to the southwest of a mesoscale convective
   vortex which is migrating southeastward around 20-30 kt.  

   Through 13-15Z, merging convection and a continued gradual upscale
   growth appears possible, aided by inflow of seasonably moist air
   characterized by sizable CAPE on the order of 2000-3000 J/kg.  Into
   mid morning, there may be a tendency for activity to increasingly
   root within a warming boundary layer with surface dew points in the
   lower 70s, contributing to intensifying updrafts.  As this occurs,
   there is potential for surface pools to strengthen and consolidate,
   and eventually begin to surge more rapidly southeastward in
   conjunction with the development of strengthening rear inflow.  If
   this occurs, it probably would be accompanied by increasing
   potential for strong wind gusts.

   ..Kerr.. 06/21/2020

   ...Please see for graphic product...


   LAT...LON   34119561 33809453 32429542 32119680 32729799 33719773

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