|Mesoscale Discussion 952|
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Mesoscale Discussion 0952
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0751 PM CDT Sat May 28 2022
Areas affected...portions of central and southern South Dakota
Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 283...
Valid 290051Z - 290145Z
The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 283
SUMMARY...Strong to severe storms may drift east of WW281 and WW283
into portions of central and southern SD later this evening.
Damaging winds and perhaps some isolated hail will remain possible.
A weather Watch is being considered.
DISCUSSION...Evening radar imagery showed scattered strong/severe
thunderstorms ongoing across portions of southern SD and
north-central NE. Over the next couple of hours, these storms should
move northeastward toward the eastern border of WW281 and WW283 into
portions of central and southern SD. SPC mesoanalysis show
sufficient buoyancy (MLCAPE 1000-2000 J/kg) south of a
quasi-stationary boundary to support the ongoing convection east of
the current watches. With steep low and mid-level lapse rates (8-9
C/km), the threat for damaging wind gusts and perhaps, isolated hail
Latest HRRR and WOFS guidance hint that the southern most portions
of the cluster may remain the most organized. This is in step with
current radar trends that have shown additional consolidation of
storms across north-central and southern SD in the last hour. While
confidence in the eastward extent of the severe risk is relatively
low, enough risk may exist to warrant an additional weather watch
downstream in the next hour.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
LAT...LON 42949880 42889900 42609940 42290032 42230115 42430147
43190112 44180101 44580102 44720090 44800069 44920001
44929943 44859908 44709877 44379869 43999864 43429862
43219863 43059870 42949880
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