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Mesoscale Discussion 952
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   Mesoscale Discussion 0952
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0751 PM CDT Sat May 28 2022

   Areas affected...portions of central and southern South Dakota

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 283...

   Valid 290051Z - 290145Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 283
   continues.

   SUMMARY...Strong to severe storms may drift east of WW281 and WW283
   into portions of central and southern SD later this evening.
   Damaging winds and perhaps some isolated hail will remain possible.
   A weather Watch is being considered.

   DISCUSSION...Evening radar imagery showed scattered strong/severe
   thunderstorms ongoing across portions of southern SD and
   north-central NE. Over the next couple of hours, these storms should
   move northeastward toward the eastern border of WW281 and WW283 into
   portions of central and southern SD. SPC mesoanalysis show
   sufficient buoyancy (MLCAPE 1000-2000 J/kg) south of a
   quasi-stationary boundary to support the ongoing convection east of
   the current watches. With steep low and mid-level lapse rates (8-9
   C/km), the threat for damaging wind gusts and perhaps, isolated hail
   may persist.

   Latest HRRR and WOFS guidance hint that the southern most portions
   of the cluster may remain the most organized. This is in step with
   current radar trends that have shown additional consolidation of
   storms across north-central and southern SD in the last hour. While
   confidence in the eastward extent of the severe risk is relatively
   low, enough risk may exist to warrant an additional weather watch
   downstream in the next hour.

   ..Lyons/Guyer.. 05/29/2022

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...FSD...ABR...LBF...UNR...

   LAT...LON   42949880 42889900 42609940 42290032 42230115 42430147
               43190112 44180101 44580102 44720090 44800069 44920001
               44929943 44859908 44709877 44379869 43999864 43429862
               43219863 43059870 42949880 

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