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Mesoscale Discussion 953
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   Mesoscale Discussion 0953
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1243 PM CDT Sat Jun 30 2018

   Areas affected...Northern Texas into southwest Oklahoma

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 301743Z - 301915Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...A developing cluster of storms in northern Oklahoma will
   likely strengthen this afternoon as it moves into Oklahoma. These
   storms may produce some large hail and damaging winds as the storms
   move northeast this afternoon and into the evening.

   DISCUSSION...A cluster of storms has started to develop in northern
   Texas ahead of a weak MCV. As the boundary layer destabilizes
   further across Oklahoma this afternoon, these storms will likely
   continue to strengthen. Deep-layer shear is weak across much of the
   Southern Plains, however the VWP from FDR and DYX is sampling an
   area of enhanced mid-level flow (35 to 40 knots around 5 km)
   associated with this MCV. Therefore, this combination of strong to
   very strong instability across Oklahoma combined with the locally
   enhanced shear associated with the MCV will provide an environment
   supportive of one or more multicell clusters. The primary threat
   from these storms will be large hail and damaging winds. No watch is
   expected ahead of the current convection, however a watch may be
   needed later this afternoon if this convection grows upscale and
   becomes a more widespread threat.

   ..Bentley/Hart.. 06/30/2018

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...SJT...

   LAT...LON   34469976 34819977 35419967 35939944 36339901 36479850
               36499797 36409715 35739671 34419691 33649738 33029792
               32729843 32869892 33119934 33609972 34469976 

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Page last modified: June 30, 2018
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