|Mesoscale Discussion 955|
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Mesoscale Discussion 0955
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0141 AM CDT Sun May 29 2022
Areas affected...Eastern SD...Extreme Southeast ND
Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 284...
Valid 290641Z - 290815Z
The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 284
SUMMARY...The threat for isolated strong wind gusts and hail
DISCUSSION...Regional radar imagery shows an arc of elevated
thunderstorms from near ABR southeastward to about 20 miles east of
HON. A well-defined outflow boundary precedes these storms, with a
44 kt gust recently reported at HON and a 31 kt gust reported
farther south at MHE. The expectation is for this line to continue
northeastward into the warm frontal zone extending from far
northeast SD southeastward across southern MN. Despite the elevated
character of this line, the relatively dry sub-cloud layer could
still support a few stronger gusts, although the gust potential
decreases with northeastward extent. Additionally, steep mid-level
lapse rates will support the potential for isolated hail as well.
The overall severe potential is expected to remain isolated, and an
additional downstream watch is not currently anticipated.
Farther south in far south-central SD, elevated storms have recently
strengthened, potentially as a result of slightly stronger warm-air
advection. Steep mid-level lapse rates will continue to support the
potential for large hail with these storms.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
LAT...LON 44769883 45679839 46209756 46059668 45429662 43039784
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