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Mesoscale Discussion 956
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   Mesoscale Discussion 0956
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0416 AM CDT Sun May 29 2022

   Areas affected...Far Southeast SD...Far Southwest MN...Extreme
   Northwest IA

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 285...

   Valid 290916Z - 291045Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 285
   continues.

   SUMMARY...The threat for large to very hail and strong wind gusts
   continues within Severe Thunderstorm Watch 285.

   DISCUSSION...A strong elevated supercell continues to move
   northeastward across far southeast SD towards extreme northwest IA
   and adjacent southwest MN. This region is in the northwestern
   periphery of a strong low-level jet that extends across the southern
   and central Plains. Warm-air advection associated with this
   low-level jet is expected to remain over the region for the next
   several hours as the low-level jet persists. This warm-air advection
   coupled with increasing low-level moisture and steep mid-level lapse
   rates should support the perseverance of this supercell.

   Primary threat is currently large to very large hail. Recent MRMS
   MESH estimates hail over 3". Additionally, despite low-level
   stability, some strong wind gusts are also possible, particularly as
   this supercell interacts with an outflow boundary from earlier
   storms.

   ..Mosier.. 05/29/2022

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...FSD...

   LAT...LON   43569734 43929668 44169558 43899517 43359523 43129602
               42929716 43569734 

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Page last modified: May 29, 2022
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