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Mesoscale Discussion 957
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   Mesoscale Discussion 0957
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0510 AM CDT Sun May 29 2022

   Areas affected...Southern/Central MN

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely 

   Valid 291010Z - 291215Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

   SUMMARY...Ongoing severe thunderstorm cluster across far southwest
   MN and extreme northwest IA is expected to continue downstream into
   more of central and southern MN. The threat for damaging wind gusts
   and large hail with this storm will likely merit the issuance of an
   additional watch.

   DISCUSSION...Ongoing supercell over far southwest MN and extreme
   northwest IA has undergone a transition to a more outflow-dominant
   linear mode. Current storm motion is northeast at around 45 kt,
   taking it to the edge of Severe Thunderstorm Watch 285 around 11Z.
   Low-level stability is in place within the downstream air mass
   across southern and central MN. However, steep mid-level lapse
   rates, the presence of a 1 km deep cold pool (as evidenced by the
   FSD VAD profile) and a strong low-level jet will likely support
   storm persistence for at least the next several hours. Additionally,
   while buoyancy and vertical shear are not overly strong, they are
   sufficient for storm maintenance, particularly given the currently
   well-organized character of the convection.  As a result, the threat
   for damaging wind gusts and large hail will likely merit the
   issuance of an additional watch downstream into more of southern and
   central MN.

   ..Mosier/Edwards.. 05/29/2022

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...ARX...MPX...FSD...

   LAT...LON   43849485 44309510 44629506 44929486 45069441 45139380
               44969323 44919323 44469294 44069309 43659358 43619441
               43849485 

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Page last modified: May 29, 2022
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