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Mesoscale Discussion 961
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   Mesoscale Discussion 0961
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0631 PM CDT Sun Jun 13 2021

   Areas affected...West-central to southwest Oklahoma and northwest

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 132331Z - 140130Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...Scattered thunderstorms should continue to develop along
   outflow boundaries through the late evening hours. This activity may
   show periods of intensification that will pose a hail/damaging wind
   threat. Due to low confidence in the coverage and duration of the
   risk, a watch is not expected.

   DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms continue to develop in the vicinity of a
   remnant MCV that has lingered across southwest OK, as well as along
   residual outflow boundaries and a weak confluence axis draped from
   south-central to northwest OK. Although deep-layer flow is generally
   weak over the region, dewpoints in the upper 60s and low 70s are
   supporting 2000-3000 J/kg MLCAPE outside of existing cold pools.
   Little to no inhibition will continue to allow new convective
   development, and recent activity has shown pulse-like behavior with
   periods of strong cloud-top cooling per GOES IR imagery. This
   suggests that any cell could pose at least a brief damaging
   wind/hail risk. The onset of diurnal cooling after 01 UTC may limit
   the propensity for new convection, but recent hi-res guidance
   suggests new storms may continue to develop along a southward-moving
   outflow boundary and in the vicinity of the MCV as it continues to
   move into northwest TX during the overnight hours. Confidence in
   this scenario is low given how poorly guidance has handled the
   evolution of the MCV thus far, but the potential for at least an
   isolated severe threat is noted.

   ..Moore/Dial.. 06/13/2021

   ...Please see for graphic product...


   LAT...LON   34449951 34799903 35259869 35719875 36229866 36379829
               36029780 35399754 34909731 34419693 34079692 33439715
               32919743 32729784 32599873 32799967 33299999 33940001

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