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Mesoscale Discussion 962
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   Mesoscale Discussion 0962
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0715 PM CDT Sun Jun 13 2021

   Areas affected...Western Nebraska and far northeast Colorado

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 268...

   Valid 140015Z - 140215Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 268
   continues.

   SUMMARY...Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms should continue to
   move eastward across west Nebraska this evening, and will pose a
   risk for hail as well as strong winds. A more robust damaging wind
   threat may evolve in the coming hours, but confidence is somewhat
   low.

   DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms that initially developed in the vicinity
   of a surface low across southeast WY continue to gradually shift
   east within the mean flow regime. This activity has produced several
   hail reports, with a few hail stones up to 1.75 inches noted. Storm
   motions and wide spacing have made cold pool consolidation
   difficult, so little upscale growth has occurred and the wind threat
   has been somewhat limited spatially. New development within a
   diffuse surface warm front along the NE/SD border may experience
   favorable storm motion/initiating boundary orientations to foster
   upscale growth over the next 1-2 hours, which could support a more
   robust damaging wind threat given steep low-level lapse rates. The
   overall weak deep-layer flow casts some uncertainty into this
   scenario, however. If this occurs, a downstream watch across central
   NE may be considered. Otherwise, the severe threat should remain
   fairly isolated as storms continue to meander further into western
   NE and far northeast CO.

   ..Moore.. 06/14/2021

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...LBF...GLD...BOU...CYS...

   LAT...LON   40240247 40520367 40850452 41220459 42030415 42600381
               42970314 42980179 42750115 42610038 42020014 41350020
               40730040 40230089 40200180 40220234 40240247 

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Page last modified: June 14, 2021
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