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Mesoscale Discussion 963
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   Mesoscale Discussion 0963
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0939 PM CDT Sun Jun 13 2021

   Areas affected...Western Nebraska

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 268...

   Valid 140239Z - 140445Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...The threat for severe wind and hail will continue across
   portions of western Nebraska for the next 1-2 hours, but the
   duration of the threat after 04 UTC is uncertain.

   DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms ongoing across western and northwestern
   NE continue to produce instances of measured severe wind gusts as
   well as hail up to 1.5 inches. The convection that developed within
   the warm frontal zone near the NE/SD border has been slow to grow
   upscale with only recent cold pool organization noted in KLNX
   velocity data. This activity will continue to migrate to the
   southeast and interact with a broken line of storms moving eastward
   out of the NE Panhandle. This interaction should maximize
   convergence to the west/northwest of the KLNX area and provide
   sufficient lift for continued development (and a continued severe
   threat) in the near term given nearly 2000 J/kg MLCAPE in place.

   The severe potential becomes less certain by (and after) 04 UTC as
   the storms move towards the KLNX area. The 00Z North Platte sounding
   revealed around -130 J/kg MLCIN, and decreasing low-level moisture
   to the east of KLNX suggests capping may be stronger with eastward
   extent. Storms will likely struggle to maintain intensity in this
   environment in the absence of more organized mesocyclones (which is
   unlikely given the limited deep-layer shear). Recent hi-res guidance
   supports this idea, suggesting that the severe threat should
   diminish after 04 UTC.

   ..Moore.. 06/14/2021

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...LBF...CYS...

   LAT...LON   41620295 42420291 42810230 42900192 42990146 42920100
               42570046 41950087 41510113 41200147 41260188 41410284
               41620295 

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Page last modified: June 14, 2021
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