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Mesoscale Discussion 964
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   Mesoscale Discussion 0964
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1031 AM CDT Mon Jun 14 2021

   Areas affected...Portions of eastern OH...northern
   WV...western/central PA...and western MD

   Concerning...Severe potential...Severe Thunderstorm Watch likely 

   Valid 141531Z - 141700Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

   SUMMARY...Damaging winds and severe hail may occur as storms
   increase in coverage and intensity this afternoon. Watch issuance is
   likely.

   DISCUSSION...A mid-level shortwave trough over the Great Lakes will
   continue to move southeastward across the Mid-Atlantic this
   afternoon and evening. Large-scale ascent preceding this feature is
   supporting an area of thunderstorms along the shore of Lake Erie and
   into northwestern PA. The airmass across eastern OH into
   western/central PA and vicinity ahead of the front is expected to
   gradually destabilize through the early afternoon as diurnal heating
   continues. The low-level airmass is not overly moist, with recent
   surface observations showing surface dewpoints ranging from the mid
   50s to low 60s. Still, the development of around 1000 J/kg of MLCAPE
   appears probable by peak afternoon heating. Weak low-level winds
   quickly strengthen at mid levels, and 40-50 kt of effective bulk
   shear will support organized updrafts. A mix of supercells and
   multicells along the front should pose a threat for both isolated
   severe hail and scattered damaging winds as convection spreads
   east-southeastward. Watch issuance will likely be needed as storms
   are expected to increase in coverage and intensity through the early
   afternoon.

   ..Gleason/Grams.. 06/14/2021

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...CTP...LWX...PBZ...RLX...CLE...

   LAT...LON   40898109 41148051 41607948 41577849 41437714 41087698
               40597720 39847782 39447885 39277982 39598091 40108147
               40898109 

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Page last modified: June 14, 2021
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