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Mesoscale Discussion 974
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   Mesoscale Discussion 0974
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0640 PM CDT Mon Jun 22 2020

   Areas affected...Far southeast Nebraska...northeast Kansas...extreme
   northwest Missouri

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 222340Z - 230145Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...A few more severe wind gusts/hail are possible over the
   next few hours of the diurnal heating cycle. The greatest chance for
   severe appears to be associated with a small storm cluster entering
   Pawnee County, NE. Given the isolated nature of the severe threat, a
   WW issuance is not currently expected.

   DISCUSSION...A loosely organized MCS is moving across far southeast
   NE and is crossing the KS border. One particular linear cluster
   embedded in the MCS has a history of producing up to 60 mph wind
   gusts and 1.5 inch hail over the past couple of hours. This smaller
   linear segment has recently shown bowing structure, with the
   immediate downstream environment characterized by 1000 J/kg MLCAPE
   and 35 knots of effective bulk shear, supporting continued
   organization of the small bow. 

   However, with the onset of nocturnal cooling in the next couple of
   hours, instability is expected to wane, with an overall weakening
   trend in convection expected, as also depicted by some of the latest
   high-resolution model guidance. Given the shorter duration and
   marginal magnitude of the severe threat, a WW issuance is not
   anticipated.

   ..Squitieri/Edwards.. 06/22/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...EAX...OAX...TOP...GID...

   LAT...LON   40039775 40519769 40679666 40909607 40559563 40379528
               39759471 39299461 38899490 38649566 38609629 39029703
               39679762 40039775 

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Page last modified: June 23, 2020
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