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Mesoscale Discussion 978
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   Mesoscale Discussion 0978
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0155 PM CDT Mon May 30 2022

   Areas affected...Southeastern Nebraska...southwestern
   Iowa...northeastern Kansas...and far northwest Missouri

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 301855Z - 302100Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

   SUMMARY...Potential for supercell development this afternoon. All
   severe weather hazards are possible.

   DISCUSSION...Towers have developed along a strong dryline
   circulation from the surface low in northern Nebraska into central
   Kansas with composite radar showing some attempts at deeper cores
   developing. The OAX 18Z RAOB showed significant ascent in the
   850-700mb layer in the prior 6 hours which has significantly eroded
   inhibition with CINH at -46 J/kg.  Mid-level heights will be neutral
   to slightly rising across this portion of the dryline for the
   remainder of the day. Therefore, despite an uncapped boundary layer
   and a strong dryline circulation, storms would likely be more
   isolated until later this evening when the cold front overtakes the
   dryline. However, current visible satellite and radar trends suggest
   more widespread storm coverage may be possible this afternoon. 

   Any storms which develop will likely be supercellular given 50-55
   knots of shear and strengthening mid-level flow with MLCAPE around
   1500 J/kg and expected to increase to 2000 J/kg later this
   afternoon. The 18Z OAX RAOB showed a long and straight hodograph,
   but at least some low-level backing is forecast through this
   afternoon/evening as the surface low continues to deepen. All severe
   weather hazards will be possible, including large hail (some very
   large), damaging winds, and a few tornadoes.

   ..Bentley/Thompson.. 05/30/2022

   ...Please see for graphic product...


   LAT...LON   39009679 39759656 40449643 41399650 41909648 42129553
               41949490 41459462 40429457 39679497 38979602 39009679 

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