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Mesoscale Discussion 981
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   Mesoscale Discussion 0981
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0351 PM CDT Mon May 30 2022

   Areas affected...eastern KS

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 302051Z - 302245Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

   SUMMARY...The severe threat across eastern Kansas is increasing this
   afternoon. Area is being monitored for possible watch issuance in
   the next 1-2 hours.

   DISCUSSION...Vertically developing cumulus are increasing along a
   sharp dryline draped across east-central KS this afternoon. Ahead of
   the boundary, surface dewpoints have increased into the mid/upper
   60s as temperatures have warmed into the 80s beneath modest midlevel
   lapse rates. This is resulting in MLCAPE values around 2000-2500
   J/kg. Furthermore, the 20z RAOB from TOP shows little remaining
   inhibition. While large-scale ascent will remain modest over the
   region, weak low-level confluence ahead of the boundary and
   continued heating should allow for a few thunderstorms in the next
   couple of hours. Current VWP data from KICT and KTWX show modest,
   but favorably curved low-level hodographs supporting rotation.
   Furthermore, effective shear magnitudes greater than 50 kt will
   support supercells. Given aforementioned weak forcing, any storms
   that develop should remain discrete and have the potential for large
   hail, damaging gusts and a couple of tornadoes. Convective trends
   will be monitored and a watch may be needed by 22-23z.

   ..Leitman/Thompson.. 05/30/2022

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...EAX...TOP...ICT...OUN...

   LAT...LON   38429754 39739637 39909616 39959597 39909574 39709549
               39349525 38929516 38289545 37729581 37229635 37179661
               36949740 36869805 37059824 37399817 38429754 

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Page last modified: May 30, 2022
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