Mesoscale Discussion 0981
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0622 PM CDT Sun Jun 11 2023
Areas affected...parts of eastern Colorado southward/southeastward
to northeastern New Mexico and western portions of the Oklahoma and
Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 267...
Valid 112322Z - 120115Z
The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 267
SUMMARY...Isolated severe storms will continue across portions of
the WW area over the next couple of hours.
DISCUSSION...Latest radar loop shows isolated severe thunderstorms
ongoing across the central/southern High Plains area, near a
northwest-to-southeast cold front that has backdoored into the High
Plains. The airmass near and just to the cool side of the front
remains amply unstable, with mixed-layer CAPE ranging from roughly
1000 J/kg across northern portions of the watch, to around 2000 J/kg
over western portions of the Texas Panhandle.
The strongest storm at this time is a long-lived,
southeastward-moving supercell now over southeastern Las Animas
County Colorado, which produced very large hail (up to 2" diameter
reported) earlier, and remains capable of producing similarly sized
hail per latest radar data. The storm will begin to affect
northeastern parts of Union County New Mexico, and northwestern
portions of Cimarron County Oklahoma over the next hour.
Meanwhile, a storm northwestern Elbert County Colorado remains
fairly well-organized, while a couple of other cells continue to
increase near the New Mexico/Texas Panhandle border, which will
likely produce at least marginally severe hail in the next 1 to 2
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
LAT...LON 39380497 39530426 39010395 38450403 37650362 37090225
34910172 34740298 35610343 36330444 36440515 37890499
38450479 38770519 39380497