|Mesoscale Discussion 981|
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Mesoscale Discussion 0981
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0351 PM CDT Mon May 30 2022
Areas affected...eastern KS
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible
Valid 302051Z - 302245Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent
SUMMARY...The severe threat across eastern Kansas is increasing this
afternoon. Area is being monitored for possible watch issuance in
the next 1-2 hours.
DISCUSSION...Vertically developing cumulus are increasing along a
sharp dryline draped across east-central KS this afternoon. Ahead of
the boundary, surface dewpoints have increased into the mid/upper
60s as temperatures have warmed into the 80s beneath modest midlevel
lapse rates. This is resulting in MLCAPE values around 2000-2500
J/kg. Furthermore, the 20z RAOB from TOP shows little remaining
inhibition. While large-scale ascent will remain modest over the
region, weak low-level confluence ahead of the boundary and
continued heating should allow for a few thunderstorms in the next
couple of hours. Current VWP data from KICT and KTWX show modest,
but favorably curved low-level hodographs supporting rotation.
Furthermore, effective shear magnitudes greater than 50 kt will
support supercells. Given aforementioned weak forcing, any storms
that develop should remain discrete and have the potential for large
hail, damaging gusts and a couple of tornadoes. Convective trends
will be monitored and a watch may be needed by 22-23z.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
LAT...LON 38429754 39739637 39909616 39959597 39909574 39709549
39349525 38929516 38289545 37729581 37229635 37179661
36949740 36869805 37059824 37399817 38429754
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