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Mesoscale Discussion 988
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   Mesoscale Discussion 0988
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0326 PM CDT Wed Jun 24 2020

   Areas affected...Central/Southern KS

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 242026Z - 242230Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

   SUMMARY...Storms are developing in an environment supportive of
   large hail and strong wind gusts.

   DISCUSSION...Recent surface analysis places a weak/diffuse boundary
   from northeast CO southeastward across central KS and into far
   west-central MO. This boundary is defined primarily by a modest wind
   shift. A cumulus field continues to build along and south of the
   boundary and convective initiation may be underway with the
   development of a deep updraft about 20 miles southwest of RSL.
   Environment over the area is characterized by MLCAPE around 1500
   J/kg and vertically veering wind profiles with 0-6 km vertical shear
   from 30 to 40 kt. These conditions are favorable for storms capable
   of large hail and strong downbursts. Overall storm coverage remains
   questionable given the lack of large-scale forcing for ascent and
   presence of weak height rises. Convective trends will be monitored
   closely and a watch may be needed if sufficient storm coverage
   appears likely.

   ..Mosier/Dial.. 06/24/2020

   ...Please see for graphic product...


   LAT...LON   39290140 38829962 38599653 37509655 37249845 37880159

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