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Mesoscale Discussion 1003
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   Mesoscale Discussion 1003
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0927 PM CDT Fri Jun 18 2021

   Areas affected...southeast NE...southern IA...northern
   MO...west-central IL

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely 

   Valid 190227Z - 190430Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

   SUMMARY...Thunderstorms are expected to increase in coverage and
   intensity this evening and overnight with the potential for very
   large hail,  damaging winds, and perhaps a tornado or two.  A watch
   will likely be needed by 0330z for parts of the discussion area for
   this scenario.

   DISCUSSION...A small cluster of strong/severe thunderstorms has
   developed over southeast NE the vicinity of an east-west stationary
   front.    Increasing large-scale ascent, owing to warm advection
   with a developing low-level jet and a subtle mid-level impulse
   approaching from central NE, should help focus additional
   thunderstorm development near the front over southern IA/northern MO
   during the next few hours.  The environment is supportive of
   supercells with 40-45 kts of effective shear and MUCAPE in excess of
   2500 J/kg.  Storms will be capable of very large hail and damaging
   downburst winds.  Some tornado risk will also exist due to the
   proximity of the front, where effective SRH values are in excess of
   200 m2/s2.  Storm mode should evolve into linear/bowing segments
   with time with damaging wind potential becoming more prominent.

   A watch will likely be needed for parts of the discussion area by
   0330z.

   ..Bunting/Guyer.. 06/19/2021

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...ILX...LSX...DVN...DMX...EAX...OAX...

   LAT...LON   39899069 40079280 40149399 40169710 40559721 41319587
               41689409 41789270 41679130 41319067 40959031 40429022
               39899069 

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Page last modified: June 19, 2021
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