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Mesoscale Discussion 1005
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   Mesoscale Discussion 1005
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0314 AM CDT Wed Jul 04 2018

   Areas affected...northern South Dakota

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 262...

   Valid 040814Z - 040945Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 262

   SUMMARY...Strong-to-severe thunderstorm wind gusts will remain
   possible across portions of northern South Dakota for another 2-3
   hours. This threat may require an extension in space and time of
   Severe Thunderstorm 262 across far northeast South Dakota.

   DISCUSSION...Initial isolated thunderstorm across Wyoming last
   evening has grown upscale into a linear mesoscale convective system
   (MCS) as it moved across South Dakota. As it did so, a measured 95
   mph wind gust was recorded by the Mobridge, SD, ASOS station shortly
   before 2AM CDT. Now, the South Dakota MCS has merged along the
   southern end of a North Dakota MCS. The combined MCS continues to
   move east, and will continue to do so through the morning.

   The environment along and ahead of the MCS remains unstable with
   most-unstable CAPE values in excess of 3000-4000 J/kg. Deep-layer
   shear is sufficient for updraft maintenance, however, at 30-35
   knots, is somewhat lower than farther north. Additionally, with
   time, increasing surface-based convective inhibition associated with
   a deepening nocturnal boundary layer should begin to limit the
   potential for severe wind damage to reach the surface, and,
   ultimately lead to a weakening in the convective intensity. In any
   event, this environment should allow for another 2-3 hours of severe
   potential, which would extend past the original expiration time of
   Severe Thunderstorm Watch 262 and potentially to areas east of the
   watch. As such, a small extension in space and time may be needed
   before 10Z (5 AM CDT).

   ..Marsh.. 07/04/2018

   ...Please see for graphic product...


   LAT...LON   44000007 45120059 45859972 45899568 44179767 44000007 

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