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Mesoscale Discussion 1010
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   Mesoscale Discussion 1010
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0251 PM CDT Wed Jul 04 2018

   Areas affected...eastern Colorado...southeastern Wyoming...and
   western Nebraska

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 041951Z - 042045Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

   SUMMARY...Convection across central Colorado and adjacent far
   southeastern Wyoming should continue to expand into a few
   thunderstorms across the discussion area through the afternoon.  A
   WW issuance is possible, although convective trends will be

   DISCUSSION...Towering cumulus has been confined to 1) higher
   elevations of central Colorado/southeastern Wyoming and 2) eastward
   along a cold front near El Paso County, CO recently.  Warming
   surface temperatures, steepening low and mid-level lapse rates, and
   weak low-level upslope flow will continue to allow for storms to
   develop through the afternoon - similar to what has been observed
   just west of Cheyenne recently.  Models (particularly the HRRR) also
   indicate potential for at least isolated thunderstorm development
   across the discussion area (including portions of west-central
   Nebraska) through the afternoon hours - although convective coverage
   remains a concern as much of the area of cumulus resides upstream of
   a mid-level shortwave now over northeastern Colorado.  Weak
   low-level wind fields/shear will promote loosely-organized clusters
   of outflow-dominant storms, with potential for hail/damaging wind
   gusts and upscale growth into linear segments should storms
   materialize as expected.  Convective trends may necessitate a Severe
   Thunderstorm Watch issuance - especially in eastern portions of the
   discussion area where stronger buoyancy (amidst low-70s F dewpoints)

   ..Cook/Hart.. 07/04/2018

   ...Please see for graphic product...


   LAT...LON   41810612 41960587 42130484 42350294 42280086 41670055
               41370115 40430208 39740278 38990352 38470376 38320432
               38690505 40240541 41810612 

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