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Mesoscale Discussion 1019
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   Mesoscale Discussion 1019
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0128 AM CDT Sat Jun 27 2020

   Areas affected...Portions of KS...southern NE...extreme southwestern
   IA...and northern MO

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 308...

   Valid 270628Z - 270830Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 308
   continues.

   SUMMARY...Multiple clusters of storms will continue to pose both a
   large hail and severe wind threat for at least the next couple of
   hours.

   DISCUSSION...An eastward-moving line of storms across western KS
   continues to produce strong to severe wind gusts early this morning.
   A measured gust to 58 kt (67 mph) recently occurred in Garden City
   KS with outflow that has surged well ahead of this ongoing
   convection. A separate cluster with embedded supercells on its
   northern flank is occurring across north-central KS and far
   south-central NE. Isolated large hail will be possible with any
   storm that can remain semi-discrete given the steep mid-level lapse
   rates that are present over the central Plains (reference 00Z DDC
   and OAX soundings).

   Current expectations are for both clusters in KS to eventually merge
   and develop south-southeastward into central/eastern KS over the
   next couple of hours. This region still has the strongest
   instability present (MUCAPE 2000-3000+ J/kg) per recent
   mesoanalysis, and a 30-40+ kt south-southwesterly low-level jet over
   the southern/central Plains will likely support continued storm
   intensity and organization early this morning. Strong to severe wind
   gusts should become the main threat with time as storm mode becomes
   increasingly linear.

   Additional, more widely spaced, clusters in far southeastern NE and
   northwestern/north-central MO should also pose an isolated large
   hail and wind threat in the short term. These areas are displaced
   slightly to the east of the low-level jet axis, which may impact
   their intensity/longevity to some degree. Still, one of these
   clusters may approach the Kansas City metro in the next 1-2 hours,
   where a favorable thermodynamic environment is present to support
   severe/damaging winds.

   As convection gradually approaches the southern bounds of Severe
   Thunderstorm Watch 308 in the next couple of hours, local extensions
   in area or a new watch may need to be considered into parts of
   southern KS and perhaps west-central MO.

   ..Gleason.. 06/27/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX...OAX...TOP...ICT...GID...DDC...GLD...

   LAT...LON   37880145 39010050 40199993 40509895 40829627 40799570
               40269495 40609249 39329239 38409626 37849851 37730064
               37880145 

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Page last modified: June 27, 2020
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