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Mesoscale Discussion 1034
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   Mesoscale Discussion 1034
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1137 AM CDT Sun Jun 28 2020

   Areas affected...Southern New England Vicinity

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 281637Z - 281830Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

   SUMMARY...Scattered damaging wind gusts and isolated large hail are
   possible this afternoon, particularly in far southern New England. A
   WW may be needed this afternoon. Trends in storm organization will
   be monitored.

   DISCUSSION...A subtle shortwave is currently pivoting around and
   upper-level low through western NY. Thunderstorm development has
   already started in eastern NY and further development is expected as
   the boundary layer continues to warm this afternoon. Scattered
   thunderstorms are expected across portions of southern New England
   and adjacent areas of PA/NJ. Though low and mid-level flow will not
   be overly strong, a few convectively-enhanced damaging wind gusts
   are possible, particularly where any more organized multi-cell
   clusters can develop. Current observations suggest that the greatest
   threat for wind damage will likely be within far southern New
   England where temperatures are already in the low to mid 80s F.
   Here, MLCAPE of 1500-2000 J/kg is probable by afternoon as well as
   low-level lapse rates being slightly greater. A WW is possible this
   afternoon should trends in storm organization become more clear.

   ..Wendt/Thompson.. 06/28/2020

   ...Please see for graphic product...


   LAT...LON   41347599 41617612 42057625 42757555 43717403 43917338
               43737146 43217057 41697081 40577274 40517477 41187582

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