|Mesoscale Discussion 1037|
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Mesoscale Discussion 1037
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1120 PM CDT Tue Jul 10 2018
Areas affected...Northern North Dakota
Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 270...
Valid 110420Z - 110615Z
The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 270
SUMMARY...A wind damage threat is likely to continue for few more
hours as a line of storms moves eastward across northern North
Dakota. A new weather watch could be needed as the line approaches
the eastern edge of the WW 270 around 0600Z although the risk should
remain spatially and temporally limited.
DISCUSSION...A well-developed linear MCS is ongoing across northwest
North Dakota, which is located along a gradient of moderate
instability. The RAP is estimating MLCAPE values across northern
North Dakota in the 1500 to 3000 J/kg range. The line of storms is
being supported by the moderate instability and by large-scale
ascent associated with a shortwave trough moving eastward through
the northern Plains near the top of an upper-level ridge. The
WSR-88D VWP in northern North Dakota shows 0-6 km shear near 40 kt
with backed east-southeasterly surface winds and strongly veering
winds with height in the lowest 2 Km AGL. This wind profile will
support bowing line segments within the MCS over the next few hours.
A forward speed of around 50 kt will make wind damage possible along
the leading edge of the linear MCS.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
LAT...LON 49200259 48740291 48240293 47960265 47910199 48119906
49149914 49330026 49280168 49200259
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