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Mesoscale Discussion 1037
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   Mesoscale Discussion 1037
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1120 PM CDT Tue Jul 10 2018

   Areas affected...Northern North Dakota

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 270...

   Valid 110420Z - 110615Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 270
   continues.

   SUMMARY...A wind damage threat is likely to continue for few more
   hours as a line of storms moves eastward across northern North
   Dakota. A new weather watch could be needed as the line approaches
   the eastern edge of the WW 270 around 0600Z although the risk should
   remain spatially and temporally limited.

   DISCUSSION...A well-developed linear MCS is ongoing across northwest
   North Dakota, which is located along a gradient of moderate
   instability. The RAP is estimating MLCAPE values across northern
   North Dakota in the 1500 to 3000 J/kg range. The line of storms is
   being supported by the moderate instability and by large-scale
   ascent associated with a shortwave trough moving eastward through
   the northern Plains near the top of an upper-level ridge. The
   WSR-88D VWP in northern North Dakota shows 0-6 km shear near 40 kt
   with backed east-southeasterly surface winds and strongly veering
   winds with height in the lowest 2 Km AGL. This wind profile will
   support bowing line segments within the MCS over the next few hours.
   A forward speed of around 50 kt will make wind damage possible along
   the leading edge of the linear MCS.

   ..Broyles/Grams.. 07/11/2018

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...FGF...BIS...

   LAT...LON   49200259 48740291 48240293 47960265 47910199 48119906
               49149914 49330026 49280168 49200259 

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Page last modified: July 11, 2018
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