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Mesoscale Discussion 1038
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   Mesoscale Discussion 1038
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0115 PM CDT Wed Jul 11 2018

   Areas affected...Central into eastern Virginia

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 111815Z - 112045Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

   SUMMARY...Scattered strong storms with isolated, marginal threat for
   damaging wind gusts. WW issuance not currently anticipated.

   DISCUSSION...Agitated cumulus have become well defined across much
   of central and eastern Virginia this afternoon. Convective
   initiation has recently occurred and recent CAM guidance suggests
   that the development of additional scattered thunderstorms will be
   likely within the next few hours. Glancing deep-layer ascent
   associated with a weak mid-level shortwave trough, weak confluence
   ahead of a southward sagging cold front, and diurnal heating will
   act as lifting mechanisms for convection across the discussion area.

   Unidirectional effective bulk shear is in place, with speed-driven
   effective shear values of generally less than 30 knots noted.
   Low-level shear is poor, and RAP point forecast soundings indicate
   tall, skinny MLCAPE (up to 1500-2000 J/kg) present owing to poor
   mid-level lapse rates on the order of 5-6 C/km. Still, the
   atmosphere is moist throughout a deep-layer, with precipitable water
   values ranging between 1.7-2.0 inches. Given the deep moisture and
   modest buoyancy in place, some of the stronger storms may support
   isolated wet downbursts with an associated risk of marginally severe
   wind gusts. 

   Given the isolated and marginal extent of the severe threat, no WW
   issuance is expected at this time.

   ..Squitieri/Thompson.. 07/11/2018

   ...Please see for graphic product...


   LAT...LON   36607923 36757965 36877985 37257996 37547995 37827975
               38077948 38347917 38497875 38557857 38537825 38467783
               38357744 38117697 37767650 37537624 37397618 37047611
               36717630 36657712 36587775 36607923 

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