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Mesoscale Discussion 1039
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   Mesoscale Discussion 1039
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0356 PM CDT Wed Jul 11 2018

   Areas affected...Much of northern Minnesota

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely 

   Valid 112056Z - 112330Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

   SUMMARY...Storms are expected to initiate around 23-00Z across
   northwest Minnesota and possibly near the North Dakota border, and
   should increase in coverage this evening across northern Minnesota.
   Hail, wind, and perhaps a tornado will be possible. A watch is
   expected later this evening.

   DISCUSSION...Surface analysis shows a cold front extending from
   eastern ND into western SD, with a warm front from northwest MN into
   western WI. South of these boundaries, a very warm and unstable air
   mass continues to develop  with dewpoints in the 70s F. Meanwhile,
   gradual height falls with a low-amplitude upper trough will continue
   to approach the region. While CIN currently exists for surface based
   parcels as of 21Z, a few post-frontal showers were already forming
   over ND. With time, strong warm advection will develop in the
   low-levels near the warm front in MN, and scattered storms will
   result. Veering winds with height will favor supercells initially,
   with an eventual merger and/or backbuilding tendency. Large hail,
   damaging wind, and perhaps a tornado or two will be possible.

   ..Jewell/Hart.. 07/11/2018

   ...Please see for graphic product...


   LAT...LON   48219681 48609647 48909593 49129525 49179486 49159460
               49069427 48979405 48559335 48029316 47499320 47209350
               46959399 46849474 46689636 46809690 47219702 48219681 

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