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Mesoscale Discussion 1040
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   Mesoscale Discussion 1040
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0858 PM CDT Wed Jul 11 2018

   Areas affected...Southeastern North Dakota...portions of
   central/northern Minnesota

   Concerning...Tornado Watch 271...

   Valid 120158Z - 120400Z

   The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 271 continues.

   SUMMARY...Storm coverage is beginning to increase within WW 271. A
   tornado threat will exist for the next few hours. Storms are
   expected to grow upscale where the main threats will become large
   hail and damaging wind gusts.

   DISCUSSION...Storms have begun to form along the cold front from
   Lake of the Woods County, MN to Mahnomen County, MN. Elsewhere along
   the cold front, agitated cumulus has been increasing per 1-minute
   GOES meso-sector visible imagery. While storms have struggled to
   mature thus far, an increase in the low-level jet evident on the
   KDLH VAD profile has enlarged the hodograph through 3 km and
   effective deep-layer shear of 35-40 kts suggests better organization
   is still possible. With effective SRH of 300-400 m2/s2, the
   environment remains favorable for tornado development with any
   discrete storms. The main limiting factors for tornadoes are the
   generally narrow warm sector -- where MLCAPE values are generally
   2500-3000 -- and an expected increase in storm coverage with the
   continued strengthening of the low-level jet. Though the tornado
   threat is more conditional, large hail and severe wind gusts can
   also be expected.

   ..Wendt.. 07/12/2018

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...DLH...MPX...FGF...ABR...

   LAT...LON   45759600 45759604 45759624 45929720 46399705 47029645
               47819569 48489525 48749485 48909435 48629308 47719305
               47109305 46339304 46159304 45759576 45759586 45759600 

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Page last modified: July 12, 2018
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