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Mesoscale Discussion 1041
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   Mesoscale Discussion 1041
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1142 PM CDT Wed Jul 11 2018

   Areas affected...Northern MN and extreme northwest WI

   Concerning...Tornado Watch 271...

   Valid 120442Z - 120645Z

   The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 271 continues.

   SUMMARY...Severe-weather threat continues across the remaining
   portion of tornado watch 271 until 1 AM CDT.  A new weather watch
   may be needed, if a fast-moving line of storms evolves from the
   ongoing storms in north-central Minnesota and tracks to the
   east-southeast.

   DISCUSSION...At 0430Z, mosaic radar imagery showed a broken band of
   storms across northern MN, extending from southern Koochiching
   County to Becker County, and moving to the east-southeast at 20-25
   kt.  This activity was continuing to become intense at times, given
   the presence of strong instability (MUCAPE up to 3000 J/kg) across
   the warm sector.  Although the CAMs suggest damaging winds could
   become the primary severe-weather threat, especially if a
   forward-propagating line can evolve from the ongoing storms, any
   storms interacting with the warm front could produce a tornado. 
   However, further increase in surface-based inhibition should limit
   the tornado threat into the overnight.

   Meanwhile, the Operational HRRR, while indicating the current
   presence of storms in north-central MN, suggests this activity will
   weaken during the next 2-3 hours.  This scenario is possible, given
   the lack of forcing aloft and strengthening surface-based inhibition
   each limiting upscale growth.

   ..Peters.. 07/12/2018

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...DLH...MPX...FGF...

   LAT...LON   46689609 47659507 48239449 48589327 48369252 47959174
               47329154 46729121 46139176 45899292 45819344 45879422
               46079519 46459582 46689609 

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Page last modified: July 12, 2018
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