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Mesoscale Discussion 1042
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   Mesoscale Discussion 1042
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1242 PM CDT Thu Jul 12 2018

   Areas affected...South Carolina and portions of eastern Georgia and
   southern North Carolina

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 121742Z - 122015Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...Storms are developing across central South Carolina as
   convective temperatures are being reached. Strong wind gusts are
   likely and severe wind is possible.

   DISCUSSION...Storms are expected to continue developing as
   convective temperatures are breached across the Carolinas and
   portions of northern/eastern Georgia. Storm development should also
   be focused along a surface boundary stretching westward from eastern
   North Carolina through northern Georgia. Storms are developing in a
   buoyant environment characterized with 1500-2000+ J/kg of MLCAPE,
   but there is mostly weak shear/flow aloft, which should limit
   upscale organization. DCAPE of 800-1200 J/kg with a steep low-level
   lapse rates (8.5+ C/km) and a relatively dry sub-cloud layer (25-30+
   C surface dewpoint depressions) indicate the potential for strong
   wind gusts, and severe wind is possible. Storms should continue to
   develop this afternoon and slowly move south/east into the evening.
   A watch is unlikely given the isolated nature of the severe wind
   threat and anticipated lack of organized severe convection.

   ..Nauslar/Thompson.. 07/12/2018

   ...Please see for graphic product...


   LAT...LON   34928318 35008219 35088070 34837917 34407863 33707933
               33088016 32538112 32868167 33818288 34928318 

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