|Mesoscale Discussion 1042|
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Mesoscale Discussion 1042
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1242 PM CDT Thu Jul 12 2018
Areas affected...South Carolina and portions of eastern Georgia and
southern North Carolina
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 121742Z - 122015Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent
SUMMARY...Storms are developing across central South Carolina as
convective temperatures are being reached. Strong wind gusts are
likely and severe wind is possible.
DISCUSSION...Storms are expected to continue developing as
convective temperatures are breached across the Carolinas and
portions of northern/eastern Georgia. Storm development should also
be focused along a surface boundary stretching westward from eastern
North Carolina through northern Georgia. Storms are developing in a
buoyant environment characterized with 1500-2000+ J/kg of MLCAPE,
but there is mostly weak shear/flow aloft, which should limit
upscale organization. DCAPE of 800-1200 J/kg with a steep low-level
lapse rates (8.5+ C/km) and a relatively dry sub-cloud layer (25-30+
C surface dewpoint depressions) indicate the potential for strong
wind gusts, and severe wind is possible. Storms should continue to
develop this afternoon and slowly move south/east into the evening.
A watch is unlikely given the isolated nature of the severe wind
threat and anticipated lack of organized severe convection.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
LAT...LON 34928318 35008219 35088070 34837917 34407863 33707933
33088016 32538112 32868167 33818288 34928318
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