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Mesoscale Discussion 1043
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   Mesoscale Discussion 1043
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0247 PM CDT Thu Jul 12 2018

   Areas affected...Western/Northern Nebraska...Far Northeast
   Colorado...and Southern South Dakota

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 121947Z - 122215Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

   SUMMARY...Storms are developing across portions of western Nebraska
   and should increase in coverage to the east/north throughout the
   afternoon/evening. Damaging winds are possible.

   DISCUSSION...An increasingly agitated cumulus field is present
   across western Nebraska and some cumulus clouds have formed farther
   to the east along a surface front into northern Nebraska. Surface
   temperatures are reaching the 90s and dewpoints are in the mid 60s
   to mid 70s across the area. Continued destabilization will increase
   buoyancy (MLCAPE of 1000-3000+ J/kg) during the afternoon/evening.
   Shear is mostly weak across the area of interest, although some
   marginal shear does exist across northwest Nebraska into South
   Dakota.  Scattered multicellular convection is expected to develop
   across the area through the afternoon, initially focusing along the
   boundary running from southeast South Dakota through northeast
   Colorado, and will likely organize upscale into a QLCS this evening.
   Given the steep low-level lapse rates (8.5+ C/km) and DCAPE of 1000+
   J/kg, strong wind gusts are likely and severe wind is possible. The
   wind threat may increase if a QLCS does form later this evening.

   ..Nauslar/Thompson.. 07/12/2018

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...FSD...OAX...ABR...GID...LBF...UNR...GLD...BOU...
   CYS...

   LAT...LON   39960214 40350241 40760309 41720326 42920305 43020230
               43339996 43549910 43759743 43799676 43199634 42619626
               42269695 42009816 41380039 40530046 39960214 

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Page last modified: July 12, 2018
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