|Mesoscale Discussion 1043|
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Mesoscale Discussion 1043
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0247 PM CDT Thu Jul 12 2018
Areas affected...Western/Northern Nebraska...Far Northeast
Colorado...and Southern South Dakota
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible
Valid 121947Z - 122215Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent
SUMMARY...Storms are developing across portions of western Nebraska
and should increase in coverage to the east/north throughout the
afternoon/evening. Damaging winds are possible.
DISCUSSION...An increasingly agitated cumulus field is present
across western Nebraska and some cumulus clouds have formed farther
to the east along a surface front into northern Nebraska. Surface
temperatures are reaching the 90s and dewpoints are in the mid 60s
to mid 70s across the area. Continued destabilization will increase
buoyancy (MLCAPE of 1000-3000+ J/kg) during the afternoon/evening.
Shear is mostly weak across the area of interest, although some
marginal shear does exist across northwest Nebraska into South
Dakota. Scattered multicellular convection is expected to develop
across the area through the afternoon, initially focusing along the
boundary running from southeast South Dakota through northeast
Colorado, and will likely organize upscale into a QLCS this evening.
Given the steep low-level lapse rates (8.5+ C/km) and DCAPE of 1000+
J/kg, strong wind gusts are likely and severe wind is possible. The
wind threat may increase if a QLCS does form later this evening.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
LAT...LON 39960214 40350241 40760309 41720326 42920305 43020230
43339996 43549910 43759743 43799676 43199634 42619626
42269695 42009816 41380039 40530046 39960214
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