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Mesoscale Discussion 1044
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   Mesoscale Discussion 1044
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0447 PM CDT Thu Jul 12 2018

   Areas affected...Southern MN and west-central WI

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely 

   Valid 122147Z - 122315Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent

   SUMMARY...Strong to severe storms are expected this evening across
   southern MN into western WI. Damaging winds will be the main concern
   and a watch will likely be needed soon.

   DISCUSSION...Visible satellite has shown growth in cumulus along the
   southward tracking cold front. Additionally, convection already
   ongoing in the vicinity of MSP has increased in intensity over the
   last 30 minutes or so. Most of the convection across central MN is
   behind the surface boundary and elevated. Midlevel lapse rates are
   modest, and this should limit hail potential with this convection,
   though some small hail is possible. 

   This initial convection has quickly been undercut by the advancing
   boundary, however, as storms become better organized under the
   influence of 25-35 kt effective shear, some upscale growth is
   expected. This should allow for one of more bowing segments to
   develop along, or just ahead of the surface boundary. This
   convection should track east/southeast along the instability
   gradient across southern MN into western WI with damaging winds
   expected. A watch will likely be needed soon.

   ..Leitman/Hart.. 07/12/2018

   ...Please see for graphic product...


   LAT...LON   45359342 45449263 45419189 45179117 44769079 44329096
               43849167 43499385 43449633 43569680 44349667 44749581
               45159424 45359342 

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