|Mesoscale Discussion 1044|
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Mesoscale Discussion 1044
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0447 PM CDT Thu Jul 12 2018
Areas affected...Southern MN and west-central WI
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely
Valid 122147Z - 122315Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent
SUMMARY...Strong to severe storms are expected this evening across
southern MN into western WI. Damaging winds will be the main concern
and a watch will likely be needed soon.
DISCUSSION...Visible satellite has shown growth in cumulus along the
southward tracking cold front. Additionally, convection already
ongoing in the vicinity of MSP has increased in intensity over the
last 30 minutes or so. Most of the convection across central MN is
behind the surface boundary and elevated. Midlevel lapse rates are
modest, and this should limit hail potential with this convection,
though some small hail is possible.
This initial convection has quickly been undercut by the advancing
boundary, however, as storms become better organized under the
influence of 25-35 kt effective shear, some upscale growth is
expected. This should allow for one of more bowing segments to
develop along, or just ahead of the surface boundary. This
convection should track east/southeast along the instability
gradient across southern MN into western WI with damaging winds
expected. A watch will likely be needed soon.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
LAT...LON 45359342 45449263 45419189 45179117 44769079 44329096
43849167 43499385 43449633 43569680 44349667 44749581
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