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Mesoscale Discussion 1045
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   Mesoscale Discussion 1045
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0505 PM CDT Thu Jul 12 2018

   Areas affected...Portions of northeastern/east-central WY and far
   southeastern MT

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 122205Z - 130030Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...An isolated severe hail/wind threat should continue
   through the early evening. The coverage of severe thunderstorms will
   likely remain too isolated to warrant watch issuance.

   DISCUSSION...Isolated thunderstorms have developed this afternoon
   along and just east of the Bighorn Mountains due to weak low-level
   upslope flow and a low-amplitude shortwave trough moving over this
   area. A weak surface front resides to the south of this region, and
   limited moisture remains in the post-frontal environment. Still,
   ample surface heating across much of northeastern into east-central
   WY has allowed surface temperatures to warm into the upper 70s to
   lower 80s. MLCAPE has likewise increased into the 500-1000 J/kg
   range with modestly steep mid-level lapse rates around 7 C/km
   present. Although the low and mid-level flow will likely remain
   limited through the evening, there is enough veering with height to
   support generally 30-40 kt of effective bulk shear. Multicell to
   marginal supercell structures should be the predominant storm modes,
   with an associated large hail and locally damaging wind threat.
   Current radar/satellite trends suggest the severe threat will likely
   remain quite isolated through the evening, before diminishing with
   the loss of daytime heating and increasing convective inhibition.
   Therefore, watch issuance will probably not be needed.

   ..Gleason/Hart.. 07/12/2018

   ...Please see for graphic product...


   LAT...LON   43910652 44460650 45100633 45330590 45390495 45150419
               44420412 43680406 42970415 42560465 42480562 43410640

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