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Mesoscale Discussion 1046
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   Mesoscale Discussion 1046
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0636 PM CDT Thu Jul 12 2018

   Areas affected...Portions of north-central/northeastern NE into
   south-central/southeastern SD

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 273...

   Valid 122336Z - 130100Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 273

   SUMMARY...Mainly an isolated strong to damaging wind threat
   continues across WW 273.

   DISCUSSION...Scattered to numerous thunderstorms that developed this
   afternoon across north-central NE and south-central SD along a weak
   cold front have been mostly disorganized owing to stronger mid-level
   winds remaining displaced to the north of the front. Visible
   satellite imagery shows additional convection forming across
   southeastern SD along the front as of 2330Z. The airmass to the
   south of the front remains hot/unstable, with MLCAPE up to 3000-4000
   J/kg across northeastern NE/far southeastern SD. Steep low-level
   lapse rates could encourage isolated strong to locally damaging
   downdraft winds with the more robust thunderstorms. The main
   limiting factors that should keep the overall severe threat isolated
   through the evening remain weak shear across the warm sector and the
   tendency for storms to develop northeastward and behind the surface

   ..Gleason.. 07/12/2018

   ...Please see for graphic product...


   LAT...LON   42780200 43489927 44169664 42559667 42079830 41480026
               41370197 42780200 

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