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Mesoscale Discussion 1047
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   Mesoscale Discussion 1047
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0735 PM CDT Thu Jul 12 2018

   Areas affected...Southern MN into western and central WI

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 274...

   Valid 130035Z - 130200Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 274
   continues.

   SUMMARY...Strong to severe storms will continue to pose a damaging
   wind threat across southern MN into western WI. The threat may
   persist downstream of WW 274 into parts of central WI and trends
   will be monitored for potential watch issuance to the east of WW
   274.

   DISCUSSION...Strong to severe convection continues along and just
   ahead of the surface cold front. The most intense convection
   currently is located across western WI with a bowing segment that
   has development more orthogonal to the surface boundary. This bowing
   segment is tracking into an area of strong MLCAPE greater than 2000
   J/kg and on the southern periphery of stronger effective shear near
   30-40 kt. On this current track, storms are expected to move outside
   the current severe thunderstorm watch around 02z. Should the line
   maintain current intensity, or organize further, a downstream watch
   may be needed across parts of central WI. Convective trends will be
   monitored over the next hour or so.

   Across southern MN, storms have struggled to maintain intensity due
   to the undercutting nature of the surface front. However, any storms
   that can develop along or ahead of the front will still pose a
   strong wind threat over the next few hours.

   ..Leitman.. 07/13/2018

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...GRB...DLH...ARX...MPX...FSD...

   LAT...LON   45679171 45778999 45508931 45018905 44258914 43898994
               43819198 43779284 43589464 43579545 43759583 44199560
               44739427 45679171 

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Page last modified: July 13, 2018
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