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Mesoscale Discussion 1047
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   Mesoscale Discussion 1047
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0114 PM CDT Tue Jun 11 2019

   Areas affected...Southern North Dakota...northern South Dakota and
   adjacent portions of west central Minnesota

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 111814Z - 112045Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

   SUMMARY...Initially scattered strong storms may gradually
   consolidate ahead of a southward advancing cold front across
   southern North Dakota by 4-5 PM CDT.  Some of these storms may pose
   a risk for hail and strong surface gusts, but much of this is
   expected to remain below severe limits.

   DISCUSSION...Scattered thunderstorm development now appears well
   underway as convective temperatures are reached, generally within
   lee surface trough and ahead of a southward advancing cold front
   across the Dakotas into northern Minnesota.  This is occurring in
   the presence of steep lapse rates, particularly in low-levels as
   modest moisture is allowing for deep boundary layer mixing (and CAPE
   of 500-1000 J/kg).  However, mean northwesterly ambient lower/mid
   tropospheric wind fields across much of the region are only on the
   order of 10-20 kt.

   While this environment could support some hail and localized strong
   surface gusts in stronger storms, activity seems likely to remain
   mostly sub-severe, at least initially.  As the afternoon progresses,
   though, models do suggest that the cold front could become the focus
   for a consolidating line or cluster of storms as it approaches the
   North and South Dakota state border area.  And it might not be out
   of the question that the leading edge of consolidating outflows may
   be accompanied by a risk for strong surface gusts on a broader
   scale, which could perhaps approach severe limits.

   ..Kerr/Thompson.. 06/11/2019

   ...Please see for graphic product...


   LAT...LON   45080321 47080215 46990018 46929826 47249550 45699698
               45209815 44920019 45080321 

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