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Mesoscale Discussion 1048
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   Mesoscale Discussion 1048
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0346 PM CDT Tue Jun 11 2019

   Areas affected...Parts of western/central Kansas

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 112046Z - 112245Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

   SUMMARY...At least isolated supercell development appears possible
   near, west and south of Russell by around 5 PM CDT, before spreading
   southward through early evening.  It is not yet certain that a
   severe weather watch will be needed due to initially sparse coverage
   of storms, but trends are being monitored for this possibility.

   DISCUSSION...Modest low-level moisture return within lee surface
   troughing is contributing to a narrow corridor of boundary layer
   destabilization, from the Texas/Oklahoma Panhandle region into the
   vicinity of the Interstate 70 corridor of Kansas, near/west of
   Russell.  North-northeast of Russell, an area of enhanced warm
   advection on the nose of a modest to weak southerly 850 mb jet has
   supported a recent increase in thunderstorm activity just south of
   the Nebraska/Kansas border, with deepening boundary-layer based
   convection evident to its southwest. 

   As a 40-50 kt northwesterly 500 mb jet streak, now digging into and
   through the central High Plains, continues to approach the region
   late this afternoon, forcing for ascent coupled with mid-level
   cooling may weaken inhibition and support at least isolated
   boundary-layer based storms as early as 22Z.  Once this occurs, in
   the presence of thermodynamic profiles characterized by steep lapse
   rates and CAPE up to 1000 J/kg, strong deep layer shear will be
   supportive of supercells.  These will be capable of producing severe
   hail and locally strong surface gusts, with an initial tendency to
   propagate south-southeastward, then southward, through early

   ..Kerr/Thompson.. 06/11/2019

   ...Please see for graphic product...


   LAT...LON   39129992 39569862 38689782 37289928 37860044 39129992 

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