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Mesoscale Discussion 1051
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   Mesoscale Discussion 1051
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0343 PM CDT Mon Jun 29 2020

   Areas affected...West Texas into Northwest Texas

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 292043Z - 292245Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...Widely scattered to scattered thunderstorms are expected
   to develop along the dryline across western Texas. Very large
   buoyancy and steep lapse rates will foster a threat for large hail
   and severe wind gusts. With weak shear and a lack of upper-level
   support, storms will diminish after sunset. A WW is not currently

   DISCUSSION...Storms have initiated near Ft. Stockton and Sweetwater
   along the dryline. As they move east, they will encounter mid to
   upper 60s dewpoints which has promoted 2000-3000 J/kg MLCAPE and
   should intensify. While scattered storm coverage is expected, weak
   effective shear of 20-30 kts will keep storm organization minimal.
   Furthermore, without upper-level support, storms are likely to
   decrease in intensity shortly after sunset as they encounter
   increasing MLCIN. Multicells and perhaps marginal supercells will be
   capable of large hail and severe wind gusts. Limited storm
   organization and a spatially and temporally confined threat reduces
   confidence in the need for a WW.

   ..Wendt/Hart.. 06/29/2020

   ...Please see for graphic product...


   LAT...LON   30810288 32770083 33759992 33949868 32779845 30709977
               29820151 29880278 30070328 30360335 30810288 

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