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Mesoscale Discussion 1052
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   Mesoscale Discussion 1052
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0449 PM CDT Wed Jun 12 2019

   Areas affected...portions of far eastern KS into western and central
   MO

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 122149Z - 122315Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...Isolated strong, locally damaging winds will be possible
   across parts of far eastern KS into western/central MO this
   afternoon and early evening.

   DISCUSSION...A cluster of storms spanning west to east from Osage
   County KS to Cooper County MO will continue to track south/southeast
   this afternoon and early evening. Strong to severe wind gusts have
   been measured with these storms, with Lee's Summit recording the
   strongest gust of 56 kt. Olathe reported 38 kt and Kansas City
   International recorded 45 kt and small hail. These storms have
   developed as a shortwave trough over the mid-MS Valley continues to
   deepen and a midlevel jet streak around 40-60 kt at 500 mb glances
   the region. Temperatures are not overly warm, with highs currently
   reading mainly in the low to mid 70s with mid to upper 50s
   dewpoints. As a result, MLCAPE is generally weak, around 500-1000
   J/kg. Deep layer shear also is rather unimpressive, with effective
   bulk shear values around 20-25 kt max. However, 25-40 kt of 850-700
   mb flow is likely aiding in some loose organization of convection.
   Furthermore, while temperatures remain on the cool side for this
   time of year, low level lapse rates are quite steep, at around 8-8.5
   C/km. As a result, some stronger outflow winds may continue to
   produce near-severe gusts over the next few hours. Given the overall
   marginal environmental conditions, the severe threat is expected to
   remain limited/sporadic and a watch is not expected at this time.
   Storms are expected to gradually weaken with time into this evening
   as loss of daytime heating stabilizes the boundary layer.

   ..Leitman/Guyer.. 06/12/2019

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...LSX...SGF...EAX...TOP...

   LAT...LON   38909402 38949346 38899239 37889211 37499192 36919232
               36809309 36789336 36779382 37229455 37689494 38459520
               38679518 38839474 38909402 

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Page last modified: June 12, 2019
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