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Mesoscale Discussion 1053
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   Mesoscale Discussion 1053
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0655 PM CDT Mon Jun 29 2020

   Areas affected...North central Texas

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 292355Z - 300130Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...There is a locally enhanced severe weather threat in
   north-central Texas for the remainder of the evening.

   DISCUSSION...At least 3 supercells have developed in Shackelford and
   Throckmorton counties in the last hour. These storms have formed in
   an environment with over 3000 J/kg MLCAPE per SPC mesoanalysis with
   effective shear around 30 knots per KDYX VWP. This environment will
   continue to support at least transient supercell structures with
   this activity. The primary threats will be large hail and damaging
   winds. These storms are surface based, and thus, given the lack of a
   strong upper-level forcing, should weaken considerably after 9PM as
   the boundary layer cools.

   ..Bentley/Guyer.. 06/29/2020

   ...Please see for graphic product...


   LAT...LON   31929958 32100011 32550019 33269989 33799933 33789850
               33109794 32509792 32219815 32069874 31929958 

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