|Mesoscale Discussion 1059|
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Mesoscale Discussion 1059
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0310 PM CDT Tue Jun 30 2020
Areas affected...West Texas into southwest Oklahoma
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 302010Z - 302215Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent
SUMMARY...Widely scattered to scattered storms are again expected
along the dryline. Isolated large hail and severe wind gusts are
possible before activity diminishes after sunset. No WW is expected
DISCUSSION...Similar to yesterday, a strong dryline circulation is
expected to help initiate widely scattered to scattered storms this
afternoon from near the Big Bend to potentially as far north as
southwest Oklahoma. Current visible satellite shows deepening
cumulus within the Davis Mountains as well as near Sweetwater, TX.
Storms will intensify as they move into richer moisture to the east.
Though mid-level winds appear to be somewhat weaker than yesterday,
25-30 kts of effective shear as well as steep low/mid-level lapse
rates will foster a threat for isolated large hail and severe wind
gusts. As these storms are strongly diurnally driven, intensity
should diminish after sunset. Given the overall lack of storm
organization, the threat is expected to remain marginal. No WW is
expected this afternoon.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
LAT...LON 29590271 30080289 32380100 33060012 33559967 34399901
34569865 34039802 32189880 30840000 29690150 29590271
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