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Mesoscale Discussion 1059
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   Mesoscale Discussion 1059
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0310 PM CDT Tue Jun 30 2020

   Areas affected...West Texas into southwest Oklahoma

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 302010Z - 302215Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...Widely scattered to scattered storms are again expected
   along the dryline. Isolated large hail and severe wind gusts are
   possible before activity diminishes after sunset. No WW is expected
   this afternoon.

   DISCUSSION...Similar to yesterday, a strong dryline circulation is
   expected to help initiate widely scattered to scattered storms this
   afternoon from near the Big Bend to potentially as far north as
   southwest Oklahoma. Current visible satellite shows deepening
   cumulus within the Davis Mountains as well as near Sweetwater, TX.
   Storms will intensify as they move into richer moisture to the east.
   Though mid-level winds appear to be somewhat weaker than yesterday,
   25-30 kts of effective shear as well as steep low/mid-level lapse
   rates will foster a threat for isolated large hail and severe wind
   gusts. As these storms are strongly diurnally driven, intensity
   should diminish after sunset. Given the overall lack of storm
   organization, the threat is expected to remain marginal. No WW is
   expected this afternoon.

   ..Wendt/Hart.. 06/30/2020

   ...Please see for graphic product...


   LAT...LON   29590271 30080289 32380100 33060012 33559967 34399901
               34569865 34039802 32189880 30840000 29690150 29590271 

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