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Mesoscale Discussion 1062
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   Mesoscale Discussion 1062
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0548 PM CDT Tue Jun 30 2020

   Areas affected...Central Plains

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely 

   Valid 302248Z - 010015Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

   SUMMARY...Scattered strong/severe thunderstorms are expected along a
   cold front as it sweeps across the central Plains this evening.
   Hail/wind are the main threats.

   DISCUSSION...Strong mid-level short-wave trough is ejecting across
   the central High Plains early this evening. Latest satellite imagery
   suggests the leading edge of stronger forcing arcs from the NE
   Panhandle - eastern CO. Forcing, in association with this feature,
   will approach the cold front oriented N-S across the central Plains
   over the next few hours. Strong boundary-layer heating has developed
   across KS into south-central NE; however, very warm 700mb
   temperatures have effectively suppressed deep convection. Over the
   next several hours, significant 700mb cold-air advection will spread
   north of I-80 ahead of the ejecting short wave. This should result
   in more favorable thermodynamic profiles for deep convection. Over
   the last hour or so, cu field has become a bit more agitated along
   the front over north-central NE, with even a few showers now evident
   over western Holt County. Current thinking is this activity will
   gradually deepen and scattered thunderstorms are expected. Wind/hail
   are the primary threats.

   ..Darrow/Guyer.. 06/30/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...FSD...OAX...GID...LBF...

   LAT...LON   40340009 42319964 43629882 43119748 40329868 40340009 

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