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Mesoscale Discussion 1096
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   Mesoscale Discussion 1096
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0128 AM CDT Fri Jun 16 2023

   Areas affected...eastern Florida Panhandle

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 160628Z - 160900Z


   Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

   SUMMARY...Scattered storms are likely to persist tonight from the
   eastern Florida Panhandle into northern Florida, and a brief tornado
   or two cannot be ruled out.

   DISCUSSION...Surface observations across the area indicate a warm
   front/theta-e gradient extending from central portions of the FL
   Panhandle east/southeastward near the coast. While many stations
   over land are reporting dewpoints near 70 F, a few coastal locations
   show the very moist tropical air mass over the Gulf of Mexico is
   very close to spreading inland. Indeed, multiple buoys confirm
   dewpoints in the lower 80s F over the northeast Gulf of Mexico,
   which results in very strong instability.

   Weak warm advection and minimal CIN are aiding storm formation
   currently, due to mean boundary-layer winds out of the southwest
   across the theta-e gradient. Although winds around 850 mb may veer
   with time, 0-1 km SRH is currently averaging near 150 m2/s2 over
   land, and periodic mesocyclones have been observed on radar. Trends
   will continue to be monitored for a possible increase in storm

   ..Jewell/Edwards.. 06/16/2023

   ...Please see for graphic product...


   LAT...LON   30008562 30348483 30548442 30568312 30408283 30148269
               29858259 29608263 29618271 29338298 29398339 29748371
               29998401 29968426 29738458 29468487 29548523 29628540

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