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Mesoscale Discussion 1137
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   Mesoscale Discussion 1137
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0637 PM CDT Sun Jun 02 2024

   Areas affected...Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles...Western
   Oklahoma...Northwest Texas

   Concerning...Tornado Watch 374...

   Valid 022337Z - 030130Z

   The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 374 continues.

   SUMMARY...The severe threat across the central Texas Panhandle is
   expected to be maintained over the next few hours. The severe threat
   will gradually move eastward, and the tornado threat is expected to
   increase over the next 1 to 2 hours. As the storms approach the
   eastern edge of Tornado Watch 374, a new watch may need to be issued
   later this evening.

   DISCUSSION...The latest hi-resolution radar imagery from Amarillo,
   TX shows several supercells located near a north-to-south oriented
   dryline across the central Texas Panhandle. To the east of the
   dryline, the RAP is analyzing MLCAPE in the 3000 to 4000 J/kg range.
   The storms will continue to move eastward into the stronger
   instability, and the severe threat is expected to be maintained. The
   latest WSR-88D VWP from Amarillo has 0-6 km near 50 knots, with a
   substantial amount of directional shear in the lowest 3 km. This is
   resulting in 0-3 km storm-relative helicity near 300 m2/s2,
   suggesting that the more intense supercells could develop a tornado
   threat. The tornado threat will likely become maximized in the 00Z
   to 02Z timeframe in the east-central Texas Panhandle and southward
   to areas northeast of Lubbock, as the low-level jet strengthens. If
   a supercell can turn to the right of the mean flow and become
   dominant, then a tornado or two will be likely. In addition, RAP
   forecast soundings at Amarillo have 700-500 mb lapse rates near 9
   C/km. This will support a large hail threat with supercells, and the
   more vigorous updrafts could produce hailstones greater than 2
   inches in diameter. Severe wind gusts will also be possible.

   ..Broyles.. 06/02/2024

   ...Please see for graphic product...


   LAT...LON   33050113 33040046 33249980 33689939 35089937 35979938
               36539956 36900002 36920084 36830133 36410182 35620200
               34880214 33960210 33310180 33050113 

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