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Mesoscale Discussion 1138
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   Mesoscale Discussion 1138
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0511 PM CDT Sun Jul 22 2018

   Areas affected...Western NE

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 222211Z - 222345Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

   SUMMARY...Large hail and gusty winds may accompany storms that form
   across western NE this evening.

   DISCUSSION...Strong heating appears to be the primary contributing
   factor in recent convective development across western NE.
   Surface-2km lapse rates are approaching dry adiabatic ahead of the
   front from Cherry County into northeast CO. It appears frontal
   forcing will be more than adequate for continued updraft
   development/intensification despite the lack of meaningful
   large-scale ascent at this latitude. CAMs support a gradual upward
   evolving corridor of storms along the front this evening within a
   sheared regime supportive of weak supercells. For these reasons
   there is some concern a watch may be warranted as hail/wind could
   accompany this activity.

   ..Darrow/Guyer.. 07/22/2018

   ...Please see for graphic product...


   LAT...LON   41100195 42310136 43090051 42729977 40740107 41100195 

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