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Mesoscale Discussion 1145
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   Mesoscale Discussion 1145
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0745 PM CDT Wed Jun 19 2019

   Areas affected...portions of central Kentucky...northern Tennessee

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 403...

   Valid 200045Z - 200245Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 403

   SUMMARY...Severe threat continues with Severe Thunderstorm Watch
   0403. Damaging wind gusts will be the primary threat, particularly
   with a forward-propagating line segment. Large hail may also occur
   with transient supercell structures in northern Tennessee. The
   severe threat may gradually subside after sunset with the onset of
   nocturnal cooling.

   DISCUSSION...An organized MCS is currently moving across central KY
   into northern TN, where damaging wind gusts have been reported over
   the past few hours. This line segment will continue to propagate
   eastward for at least a few more hours, where 1000-1500 J/kg MLCAPE
   remain, along with modest low-level shear (100-150 m2/s2 0-1km SRH
   per latest mesoanalysis and RAP forecast soundings). The low-level
   shear in place may help to counterbalance the MCS- generated cold
   pool, preventing the leading line convection from becoming undercut.
   As such, the line is expected to persist through at least the
   remainder of the afternoon. 

   At the same time, more semi-discrete, cellular structures (perhaps
   transient supercells) have been noted across northern into middle
   Tennessee. The cold pools associated with these storms have recently
   begun to merge, suggesting that a more linear convective mode seems
   to be taking place. Still, remnant semi-discrete updrafts with
   sustained mid-level rotation may produce isolated severe hail. 

   After sunset, nocturnal cooling will likely result in stabilization
   of the boundary layer, where increasing inhibition may contribute to
   a gradual downward trend in the severe threat.

   ..Squitieri/Edwards.. 06/20/2019

   ...Please see for graphic product...


   LAT...LON   36168860 36438737 36958656 37888644 38168516 38248425
               38108368 37688352 36698355 36148387 35728525 35588598
               35688715 35768820 36168860 

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