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Mesoscale Discussion 1156
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   Mesoscale Discussion 1156
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0156 PM CDT Wed Jul 25 2018

   Areas affected...Portions of Western Kansas...Eastern Colorado...and
   Far Southern Nebraska

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 251856Z - 252130Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

   SUMMARY...Storms are expecting to develop this afternoon with some
   of the storms likely becoming severe. Hail/wind are the main

   DISCUSSION...A cluster of thunderstorms has been moving southeast
   throughout the morning over Nebraska and into northern Kansas. Just
   to the west of this storm cluster, storms are expected to develop
   along/near frontal boundaries stretching across northern Kansas and
   into eastern Colorado. Strong daytime heating (surface temperatures
   90+ F) should help focus convective initiation near these boundaries
   and storms will form in a convectively conducive environment
   characterized by MLCAPE of 1500-3000 J/kg and effective bulk shear
   of 30-50 knots. This should promote multicellular convection with
   rotating storms capable of producing severe hail/wind this afternoon
   and into the evening. These storms could organize upscale into a
   QLCS this evening and track south-southeast across far eastern
   Colorado and western/central Kansas. A watch is possible given the
   eventual likelihood of severe storms.

   ..Nauslar/Hart.. 07/25/2018

   ...Please see for graphic product...


   LAT...LON   40249977 40430035 40380068 40040145 39800203 39680261
               39500295 39160304 38770291 38300263 37640188 37580136
               37560078 37509972 37689911 38079838 38209814 38389776
               38659767 38869775 39149801 39539847 40249977 

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