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Mesoscale Discussion 1166
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   Mesoscale Discussion 1166
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0210 PM CDT Thu Jul 26 2018

   Areas affected...Portions of south-central MT

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 261910Z - 262145Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...Thunderstorms capable of severe hail and severe wind gusts
   will evolve through the area this afternoon but are expected to be
   isolated enough to preclude a Watch.

   DISCUSSION...A subtle perturbation in relatively moist mid-to-upper
   level flow rounding the top of the western ridge, sufficient
   mid-level lapse rates, and surface heating within low 50s dewpoints
   has contributed to isolated thunderstorms early this afternoon. 
   Continued heating should contribute to further destabilization ahead
   of the storms moving off the Big Snowy Mountains, as well over the
   higher elevations to the west and northwest of there.  

   An additional storm or two is expected to emerge from the decaying
   storms currently over Musselshell county as a corridor of increasing
   MLCAPE and steepening low-level lapse rates becomes established over
   the area.  Effective shear in the 35-45 kt range should allow for
   supercell structures and severe hail/wind potential as these storms
   respond to the increasing CAPE.  Additional thunderstorms should
   develop off the Little and Big Belt Mountains to the north and west
   into the Glacier National Park area, where a similar environment
   will also support a severe hail/wind threat.  However, given the
   weak large-scale forcing for ascent and somewhat limited
   instability, the coverage of storms/severe weather is expected to
   remain low enough to preclude a Watch, but the area will be
   monitored throughout the afternoon for signs of a more widespread
   severe threat.

   ..Coniglio/Hart.. 07/26/2018

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...BYZ...GGW...TFX...MSO...

   LAT...LON   45130893 45241010 45841194 46961336 47621375 48251393
               48791351 48771306 48201179 47500999 47040881 46460782
               45870748 45480754 45010773 45120883 45130893 

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Page last modified: July 26, 2018
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