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Mesoscale Discussion 1173
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MD 1173 graphic

   Mesoscale Discussion 1173
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1038 AM CDT Wed Jun 05 2024

   Areas of southeastern lower Michigan...northwestern
   Ohio...northeastern and central Indiana...southern Illinois

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 051538Z - 051815Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...Clusters of thunderstorms may continue to slowly
   strengthen and organize while spreading east-northeastward across
   the region accompanied by strong to, perhaps, occasionally severe
   gusts.  While the overall severe threat still appears generally
   marginal in nature, trends are being monitored and it might not be
   out of the question that a severe weather watch could become
   necessary for at least a portion of the area.

   DISCUSSION...Convection has been slowly intensifying on the leading
   edge of the convectively generated cold pool which trails a compact,
   but well-defined mesoscale convective vortex currently migrating
   east-northeastward through northern Indiana.  This appears to be
   embedded within 30+ kt west-southwesterly deep-layer mean flow, near
   the base of negatively tilted large-scale mid-level trough forecast
   to continue slowly pivoting toward the lower Great Lakes region, and
   through the Ohio Valley, into this afternoon.

   A seasonably moist boundary-layer, including mid 60s to near 70F
   surface dew points, is destabilizing to the east and south of the
   convective outflow, and, as updraft inflow becomes characterized by
   increasing CAPE, there appears potential for further intensification
   of this convective cluster as it approaches the western Lake Erie
   vicinity.  The trailing outflow has become quasi-stationary
   southwestward and westward into central Illinois, where new
   thunderstorm development appears to be occurring to the north of
   Salem.  This appears supported by an area of favorable enhanced
   mid/upper forcing for ascent, and the downstream environment appears
   conducive to similar intensification and organization which has
   occurred with the lead cluster.  

   With continuing thunderstorm intensification, and modest further
   steepening of low-level rates in advance of the convection with
   continuing insolation, the potential for strong to widely scattered
   severe surface gusts seems likely to increase through 17-19Z.  While
   most peak gusts might remain near or below 50 kts, some might become
   locally damaging.

   ..Kerr/Smith.. 06/05/2024

   ...Please see for graphic product...


   LAT...LON   41018643 42368324 42048245 41208255 40348349 39988444
               39338604 38438780 37858893 37968989 38788920 39498877
               40418672 41018643 

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