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Mesoscale Discussion 1176
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   Mesoscale Discussion 1176
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0122 PM CDT Wed Jun 15 2022

   Areas affected...northeast IA...extreme southeast MN...portions of
   southern/central WI and extreme northwest IL

   Concerning...Severe potential...Tornado Watch likely 

   Valid 151822Z - 152015Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent

   SUMMARY...Convection is expected to develop across northeast IA and
   spread northeast in the next couple of hours. Tornadoes, damaging
   gusts and hail will all be possible. A tornado watch will likely be
   needed by 20z.

   DISCUSSION...Visible satellite and radar data from KDMX indicate
   deepening cumulus across northeast IA to the northeast of a surface
   low and in the vicinity of a surface warm front. More isolated
   cumulus has also started to develop across southern WI. Latest water
   vapor imagery indicates a shortwave impulse now ejecting across
   eastern NE/southeast SD will lift east/northeast, providing
   increasing ascent across the region within the next couple of hours.
   Some weak inhibition likely remains in the vicinity of the surface
   boundary, though continued heating and increasing ascent should
   rapidly erode any remaining inhibition over the next hour.

   Strong heating south of the surface boundary across IA into central
   WI has allowed temperatures to warm into the mid/upper 80s amid
   upper 60s to low 70s F dewpoints. Relatively warm temperatures
   between 850-700 mb will maintain modestly steep midlevel lapse
   rates, but the very moist boundary layer is still supporting
   moderate instability across the region. Effective shear magnitudes
   greater than 50 kt will further support robust, well-organized
   convection. Some uncertainty remains with regards to convective
   mode, but semi-discrete supercells appear possible at least
   initially in convective evolution. VWP data from KARX already shows
   enlarged, favorably curved low-level hodographs supporting rotation.
   Additionally, strong low-level instability with enhance vorticity in
   the vicinity of the surface front suggests increased tornado
   potential will accompany any semi-discrete convection.

   With time, convection is expected to grow upscale as a 35+ kt
   south/southwesterly low-level jet increases by late afternoon/early
   evening. This will result in an increasing risk for more widespread
   damaging gusts, though mesovortex tornadoes also will continue to be
   possible given favorable low-level shear.

   ..Leitman/Guyer.. 06/15/2022

   ...Please see for graphic product...


   LAT...LON   42379320 42699312 42819308 43229273 43729207 43959172
               44359099 44549056 44709020 44658991 44558962 44348923
               44028883 43758870 43448859 42978862 42668883 42328935
               42009017 41809157 41809233 41919281 42119309 42379320 

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