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Mesoscale Discussion 1205
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   Mesoscale Discussion 1205
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0950 AM CDT Mon Jul 30 2018

   Areas affected...portions of southern AR.

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 301450Z - 301645Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

   SUMMARY...The remains of an overnight convective complex, having
   entered southwestern AR, may produce strong/isolated severe gusts
   through the remaining forenoon hours.  The severe threat presently
   appears too marginal in magnitude and limited in coverage for a
   watch, but will be monitored.

   DISCUSSION...Some re-intensification trend has been noted with the
   convective complex over the past 30-60 minutes -- both in IR
   cloud-top cooling and radar-composite imagery.  Surface mesoanalysis
   shows a weak, quasistationary frontal zone in preconvective
   environment over southern AR, representing the trailing extension of
   a cold front extending southwestward from a frontal-wave low over
   western KY.  A corridor of relatively maximized convergence, in
   otherwise weak boundary-layer flow, may help to focus convective
   coverage/strength over the next few hours as the residual cold pool
   of the MCS continues forward-propagating along and behind its
   outflow boundary.  The favorably moist air mass over southern AR
   should continue to destabilize somewhat before thicker anvil cloud
   cover moves overhead, offsetting modest midlevel lapse rates enough
   to boost MLCAPE to near 1500 J/kg, based on modifications to both
   model soundings and an interpolation of 12Z SHV/LZK RAOBs. 
   Low-level and deep shear each will remain weak.  The bulk of
   reflectivity may remain several miles behind the outflow boundary,
   except for a warm-advection wing not directly related to the cold
   pool and posing minimal severe threat on its own.  As such,
   organized severe potential appears limited, but isolated damaging
   gusts still are possible.

   ..Edwards/Grams.. 07/30/2018

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...JAN...LZK...SHV...

   LAT...LON   33199388 33589405 34319395 34439290 34329196 33259192
               33129286 33199388 

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Page last modified: July 30, 2018
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