|Mesoscale Discussion 1215|
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Mesoscale Discussion 1215
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0610 PM CDT Mon Jul 13 2020
Areas affected...OK Panhandle...northern TX Panhandle
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible
Valid 132310Z - 140015Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent
SUMMARY...Severe gusts 60-75 mph are possible as thunderstorms
intensify and move east across the northern TX Panhandle and OK
Panhandle. Trends will be monitored for a possible severe
thunderstorm watch over the next hour.
DISCUSSION...545pm CDT surface mesoanalysis shows a very moist
airmass protruding into the OK Panhandle on the north side of a
dryline bulge located over the TX Panhandle. Surface dewpoints
range from the upper 50s F in Cimarron County, OK to the lower 70s F
in Beaver County, OK. Surface temperatures are in the upper 90s to
lower 100s across the OK Panhandle and as high as 110 F farther
south at Borger, TX. The environment is characterized by very steep
low to mid-level lapse rates (8-9.5 deg C/km) and MLCAPE ranging
from around 1000 J/kg near Borger in the drier/well-mixed air to
4000 J/kg in the eastern OK Panhandle.
Water-vapor imagery suggests a weak impulse is moving across the
Sangre de Cristos late this afternoon and towards the northern
portion of the southern High Plains this evening. The LLJ is
forecast to strengthen this evening and it seems possible a broken
band may continue eastward across the Panhandles this evening. The
stronger storms will potentially be capable of severe gusts in the
60-75 mph range.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
LAT...LON 36950272 37020001 36679986 36089997 35660054 35700272
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