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Mesoscale Discussion 1215
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   Mesoscale Discussion 1215
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0610 PM CDT Mon Jul 13 2020

   Areas affected...OK Panhandle...northern TX Panhandle

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 132310Z - 140015Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

   SUMMARY...Severe gusts 60-75 mph are possible as thunderstorms
   intensify and move east across the northern TX Panhandle and OK
   Panhandle.  Trends will be monitored for a possible severe
   thunderstorm watch over the next hour.

   DISCUSSION...545pm CDT surface mesoanalysis shows a very moist
   airmass protruding into the OK Panhandle on the north side of a
   dryline bulge located over the TX Panhandle.  Surface dewpoints
   range from the upper 50s F in Cimarron County, OK to the lower 70s F
   in Beaver County, OK.  Surface temperatures are in the upper 90s to
   lower 100s across the OK Panhandle and as high as 110 F farther
   south at Borger, TX.  The environment is characterized by very steep
   low to mid-level lapse rates (8-9.5 deg C/km) and MLCAPE ranging
   from around 1000 J/kg near Borger in the drier/well-mixed air to
   4000 J/kg in the eastern OK Panhandle. 

   Water-vapor imagery suggests a weak impulse is moving across the
   Sangre de Cristos late this afternoon and towards the northern
   portion of the southern High Plains this evening.  The LLJ is
   forecast to strengthen this evening and it seems possible a broken
   band may continue eastward across the Panhandles this evening.  The
   stronger storms will potentially be capable of severe gusts in the
   60-75 mph range.

   ..Smith/Hart.. 07/13/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...OUN...DDC...AMA...

   LAT...LON   36950272 37020001 36679986 36089997 35660054 35700272
               36950272 

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