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Mesoscale Discussion 1218
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   Mesoscale Discussion 1218
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0616 PM CDT Fri Jul 09 2021

   Areas affected...Western/central Nebraska...northeast
   Colorado...northwest Kansas

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 356...

   Valid 092316Z - 100115Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 356
   continues.

   SUMMARY...Storm coverage is expected to increase due to increasing
   large-scale lift across the central Plains this evening. Large hail
   severe wind gusts will remain possible. MCS development is most
   likely from the Nebraska Panhandle into central Nebraska, which
   would bring a greater severe wind gust threat.

   DISCUSSION...Storm coverage has remained isolated across WW 356
   likely on account of shortwave ridging aloft. With time, an
   approaching shortwave moving southeastward out of Montana as well as
   an increasing low-level jet in western Kansas into southwestern
   Nebraska will increase large-scale lift. This should lead to
   increasing storm coverage in portions of WW 356. CAM guidance has
   continued to differ on the exact evolution of the current activity
   in western Nebraska/northeast Colorado.

   The ongoing supercell in northeast Colorado continues to move toward
   better moisture and will be situated near the the low-level jet axis
   this evening in western Kansas. This activity could grow upscale and
   move southeastward. The downstream environment has seen dewpoint mix
   out into the low 60s F making it uncertain as to how far such
   activity will progress.

   The more likely scenario, based on current observations, is that
   storms in the Nebraska Panhandle will continue to grow upscale and
   organize along a weak cold front situated north of I-80. Better
   mid-level ascent from the approaching shortwave gives greater
   confidence in this occurring within the next 2-4 hours.

   ..Wendt.. 07/09/2021

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...OAX...GID...LBF...GLD...BOU...CYS...

   LAT...LON   41340383 41650412 42440424 42790318 42409944 41769809
               40599887 39929999 39510063 39260150 39150204 39320263
               40000317 41340383 

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